[seiyuu:27666] Re: love live game 8000th cut off


to seiyuu@usagi.org
from Hitoshi Doi <doi@usagi.org>
subject [seiyuu:27666] Re: love live game 8000th cut off
date Mon, 16 Dec 2013 10:54:19 +0900
Stephen Lee <usagi@softmagi.com> wrote:
| 
| Hitoshi Doi <doi@usagi.org> wrote:
| > | Since the site that had the scores (and predictions)
| > | for the current event is not updating the scores,
| > | I made a simple 8000th place cutoff site.
| > 
| >   http://www.bst-akiba.net/cgi-bin/llcutoff.pl
| 
| Nice.  What function are you using to estimate the last score?
| Quadratic from the last 3 points?

I was just using the previous delta (times 1.2).
I'll try to come up with a better formula for the next event.
I have to look at the past data, and see how the curve goes up
at the end.

| It shows nicely how people start spending stones towards the end.

This is fine if you can spend the last two or three hours
glued to the game.  But I can't do that every time,
so I want to get a feel for what the final score will be.

For Honoka's event, I used 20 stones pretty quickly,
so I had enough points that I didn't need to play at all the
last 3 days.  I didn't know the final score would be so low.
I don't want to "waste" stones like that again..
But I also don't want to rush in the last hour like I did
for Kotori's event.

For the past three events, Kotori required 26 stones,
Honoka needed around 15, Hanayo around 23.
Since Kotori is the most popular and Honoka the least
(judging by the prices of the goods on sale),
maybe the other girls will be in the low 20s.

If the next event is Umi or Niko, I'll go for the 8000th.

--
Hitoshi Doi
                          " this space for rent "
http://www.usagi.org/doi/                                    doi@usagi.org

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